With the 2022 NFL Draft less than two weeks away, The Athletic’s expanded group of draft experts are hitting on some of the most pressing topics. Dane Brugler, Nate Tice, Nick Baumgardner and Diante Lee discuss trades they’d like to see, best schematic fits in Round 1 and more:
What’s currently your favorite draft subplot?
Brugler: This is the low-hanging fruit, but I can’t wait to find out how these quarterbacks shake out. What order do they come off the board? How early? What type of trade action do we see? These quarterbacks are easy to like, but hard to love. Nonetheless, they’re going to go early. As one scout put it to me: “They always do, and I doubt this year will be any different.”
I had three quarterbacks (Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis and Desmond Ridder) drafted in the top 20 in my seven-round mock draft this week. We’ll soon find out if that comes to fruition.
Tice: Like Dane, I’m wondering where do QB chips land? It’s an underwhelming class, but teams will always be pushing to try and find their guy under center. How many end up in the first round? The top 10? Any in the top five? Will there be a trade up to snag one?
Every position has little consensus in this year’s class. And there will undoubtedly be some surprises regarding which players are selected early. How teams have their wide receiver board stacked will be interesting to see shake out.
Baumgardner: I’ve continued to think about where Kyle Hamilton fits in all this. The Notre Dame safety remains more than just a safety. He landed as the No. 6-ranked player, regardless of position, in Dane’s top 100. Does he make it by the Giants at No. 7 and, if so, does that slide continue? It shouldn’t. He’s legit.
Lee: Eight teams hold more than one pick in the first round, and it’s hard to imagine that the current draft order stands pat. The lack of clarity in the quarterback class only adds to the intrigue — which players will franchises be jostling over? Which players are going to slide, as a result? Hamilton, cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. and receiver Treylon Burks are some of the players I’m focused on.
After the Saints-Eagles trade, which other team would you like to see move up the board? And to address what position?
Brugler: With multiple picks in both the first and second rounds, the Chiefs are in position to be aggressive if there is a player high on their board who falls a little bit in the first round. With Tyreek Hill no longer on the team, would they look to replace that speed with the wheels of Jameson Williams or Chris Olave? Sitting at picks nos. 29 and 30, they will likely have to move up 10 spots in the first round to make that happen.
Baumgardner: I mean, New Orleans. Again. That most recent trade, in a vacuum, seems more appealing for the Eagles. If the Saints aren’t interested in repackaging 16 and 19 to go get a quarterback, then it makes a lot less sense to me. Jumping the Chargers in the middle of the first round, in early April, was that important?
Tice: I don’t prefer moving up in the draft unless it’s for a QB. But the Chiefs having four selections on Day 2 makes a trade up an easier pill to swallow. I would love to see them target a wide receiver, and moving up a dozen spots or so would put them right in the thick of things before a potential run at position might happen.
Lee: Green Bay is in an interesting position, with two picks in the 20s and a roster that’s short on needs. Wide receiver is the only position that needs to be addressed immediately, and if general manager Brian Gutenkunst is locked in on a particular player, an aggressive move up may trigger a series of other trades from teams picking between 10-20.
If the Saints’ early move up the board is part of a plan for a QB, which of the first-round signal callers is the best fit?
Brugler: Don’t count out an offensive tackle as the reason behind the Saints’ trades. They let Terron Armstead walk and would love to fill that void with a younger, cheaper option. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see them move up for offensive lineman Charles Cross. Ideally, Cross falls to 16 and they’re able to get a receiver at 19. I think that is what the Saints want to do.
If the Saints do go after a quarterback, I don’t think there is a bad fit between Pickett and Willis. It just becomes a ceiling vs. floor debate. Pickett is ready to step in today and help win games. Willis is the intriguing option long-term. But I’m guessing they pass on quarterback this year.
Baumgardner: Pickett is the draft’s most accurate passer today, even if Willis’ long-range potential is more exciting. Pickett’s release is quick and efficient, and he’s not afraid to attack the middle. Of all the passers in this class, he’s also likely the most ready to come in and play. New Orleans has weapons on the roster now. If it takes a QB in this draft, Pickett might be the best fit now.
Tice: Malik Willis would be a home run swing for the Saints, but if he hits, it sets their franchise’s course. And he would be in an ideal situation where he can develop and doesn’t have to start Day 1 because Jameis Winston is also on the roster.
Desmond Ridder is also be an interesting potential target for the Saints. He is more pro-ready than he’s been given credit for and could handle the Saints’ true NFL offense and verbiage, which would allow him to start sooner rather than later in New Orleans. While I would prefer for Sean Payton to be the one coaching Ridder, his competitive personality fits with the locker room culture the Saints have established.
Lee: I’m not certain New Orleans has a preference between tackle and quarterback, assuming that the plan is to move up in the draft again. Replacing Armstead with a promising young player at left tackle would be a success, and filling cornerstone positions with rookie contracts will be the best strategy to transition out of New Orleans’ salary cap discomfort.
If a quarterback is the focus, I’d expect it to be for Willis. He undoubtedly has the highest ceiling and the best physical tools of the quarterbacks in this class. He’d need time to understand Pete Carmichael’s offense, but Winston’s presence gives the Saints a way to incubate and develop Willis until he’s ready.
Let’s keep playing matchmaker. Pick and explain the best landing spot for one of your favorite first-round, non-quarterback prospects.
Brugler: With his personality and exuberance, cornerback Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner was made for New York. Maybe the Jets take him at No. 4, but if not, I think the Giants would be happy to draft him No. 5 or No. 7.
The Cowboys want to return to the days when they were known for having a kick-ass offensive line, and adding a plug-and-play option like Zion Johnson at No. 24 would be a great fit.
Some potential wide receiver fits I like include Jameson Williams in New Orleans, Drake London in Philadelphia, Chris Olave in Green Bay and Jahan Dotson in Detroit.
Baumgardner: I love the idea of getting to watch Chris Olave and DeVonta Smith run routes together in the same offense. Philadelphia still needs to see growth from all areas of its offense, Jalen Hurts included, but Olave is a technician. He and Garrett Wilson continue to feel like the safest WRs in this draft. Olave isn’t as explosive, but he’s so polished. It felt like he was at Ohio State for 10 years. He’s perfect for that offense, and Philly has the picks in range to get him.
Tice: Jameson Williams with the Chiefs or Chargers. The Chargers don’t exactly need a receiver, and the Chiefs would likely need to trade up for Williams. But as a football fan, I want to watch Patrick Mahomes or Justin Herbert throw the football as far as they can to a streaking Williams.
A more realistic possibility is Jahan Dotson to the Bills. The Bills don’t mind smaller bodies in their wide receiver room, and Dotson would bring three-level route running and excellent ball skills to Buffalo. Another fun weapon with speed for Josh Allen.
Lee: Derek Stingley Jr. in Minnesota, playing under the tutelage of another Bayou Bengal, Patrick Peterson. Beyond the sentiment of two of LSU’s former No. 7s sharing the field, Stingley lands in a situation where he won’t be left on an island from day one. Peterson, Cameron Dantzler and Stingley could shuffle around to play the best matchups.
Schematically, Ed Donatell is a defensive coordinator off of Vic Fangio’s tree and one of Fangio’s right-hand men in his coaching career. Last season, Donatell and Fangio struck gold with then-Broncos rookie Patrick Surtain II stepping in the league as a lockdown corner. Stingley certainly has that potential, and if he delivers in year one, that veteran-laden Minnesota defense can make a quick turnaround.
Which prospect is experiencing a supposed rise or fall that you don’t understand?
Brugler: I struggle with the idea of North Dakota State’s Christian Watson going in the top 25 picks. There is a lot to like about his talent, and he has crushed this pre-draft process, but those at the Senior Bowl saw how much extra attention the coaches gave him because his routes were still pretty rough. The drops on film are bothersome, too. And you wish he showed more dominance at the FCS level. I like Watson a lot on day two, but the price tag might be too expensive for my taste.
On the flipside, I am surprised by some of the low opinions around the league on Purdue pass rusher George Karlaftis. I’ve talked with several people in the league who believe he won’t be drafted until the second round. I don’t think he is top-10 pick in this draft, but I also don’t see how he falls out of the top 25 because of his talent and the fact he plays a premium position.
Tice: I am completely with Dane here. I don’t understand the love for Christian Watson as a first round selection. I view him more as an intriguing third-round pick with excellent height/weight/speed traits. But his film left me wanting more.
Jermaine Johnson is another player getting love after an impressive Senior Bowl performance. While I do like Johnson and think he will be a good starter in the NFL, his upside makes him a player I’d be comfortable taking in the second half of the first round. Some mocks have him landing in the top 10.
I will also keep pounding the table that offensive lineman Charles Cross should be an easy top 10 pick. So a potential fall in the first round has me pulling my hair out.
Baumgardner: Not sure if he’s rising or falling, but it feels like Penn State edge prospect Arnold Ebiketie hasn’t gotten enough love nationally. He shot out of a cannon off the snap and was one of the best pass rushers off the ball at the Senior Bowl to my eye.
He’s not gigantic (6-2, 250) like some of the other edge players in this class, but he has some Kwity Paye to his game. He recorded 17 TFLs in only one season against Big Ten offensive lines.
Lee: In a draft class with a couple of great edge rushers and few great tackles, maybe Kyle Hamilton shouldn’t have ever been considered so highly — but I can’t say I understand what’s dropped him in the eyes of analysts and NFL types. He may not be the exact same speed demon that Derwin James was at Florida State, but the entire reason Hamilton was regarded highly was because of his tape, which still makes him look like the best overall defensive player in the draft.
Conversely, like Nate, I’m not sure that I see what some others do in Jermaine Johnson. The value Johnson adds as a run defender is massive, especially in an NFL that’s embracing more light boxes on early downs, but he’s maxed out as a pass rusher. A player that’ll top out as a secondary rusher is better suited for the back end of the first round, instead of top 10-12. What do I know, though? People are mentioning about Travon Walker as the first overall pick.
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